The four man pitching rotation

Earl Weaver said his reason for using a four man pitching rotation over a five man arrangement was because it was much easier to find four good starters than five. The adage still holds true today. Nate Robertson, Brandon Backe, and Livan Hernandez all threw over 160 innings; each had an ERA over 6. So did Carlos Silva, Miguel Batista, Garrett Olson, and several others who mercifully were not trotted to the mound so frequently. So, with pitching at an economic premium, and run prevention being as important as ever, why hasn't the idea of a five man rotation been challenged? Many teams could save countless runs by eliminating a poor number five starter, giving more innings to top pitchers, and putting the game into the hands of the bull pen a little earlier.



A starter in a five man rotation, assuming he stays healthy all year, will make about 32 starts in a given season. In a four man rotation, that number jumps to forty. A pure five man rotation may be a little extreme. With all the money invested in fragile, untested arms, handing forty starts to a kid just out of high school is a scenario unlikely to happen. Rich Harden's arm probably couldn't handle the work either. I would propose a hybrid, similar to what Weaver did with his old Orioles teams.

Take the 1982 Orioles. Weaver used primarily a four man rotation, getting 39 starts out of Dennis Martinez, 37 out of Scott McGregor, 35 from Mike Flanagan, and 32 from Jim Palmer. That leaves 20 starts, which were doled out periodically to Sammy Stewart and Storm Davis. A modern day arrangement could feature four starters getting 36 starts each, with 18 left over. The key is to avoid fatigue, by removing starters earlier from the game, and by not letting them start on three days rest more than two starts in a row. The swing man (a guy like Stewart. Julian Tavarez is a good example from today's game) would be plugged in periodically; either during a long string of games, a doubleheader, or when a starter needed an extra day of rest. And because pitching schedules are planned out far in advance, the swing man would relieve when he wasn't going to be starting for awhile. This leads to greater roster flexibility, which could be used in any number of ways depending on the team in question.

One team that probably should try this method is the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays had 92 third order wins according to BP, fourth in baseball. Unfortunatly they play in the AL East, so there total was only third in the division. But the Jays are a good team. They feature an awesome nucleus of pitching and fielding talent. Should Alex Rios/Vernon Wells/Travis Snider go nuts next season, Toronto could be a playoff bound team.

The problem is, the Jays will be a man down in the rotation, as Shaun Marcum will all of next season after TJ surgery. In the AL East, Toronto just can't win enough games if they continue to start David Purcey, Scott Richmond, and John Parrish. And in addition to losing Marcum, A.J. Burnett could opt out of his contract. That would leave only Dustin Macgowan, Jesse Litsch, and Roy Halladay as returning reliable starters.

If Toronto is going to compete next season, they will probably need to bring Burnett back, or sign Derek Lowe (Lowe would be a good fit with Toronto's defense). But if they can accumulate 145 starts between Halladay, Litsch, Macgowan, and either Burnett/Lowe, they could sneak into the post-season. It is something they should consider. Toronto's roster is not young; Snider and Lind are going to be the only offensive contributors under 28 next year, so their window for success with their current group is not large, particularily when you factor in their division mates. Tampa Bay is young and greater and only getting younger and greater. Boston is still the juggernaut of the division, and the New York Yankees... are the New York Yankees. EVERYTHING broke wrong for them this year, and they still put up 91 third order wins. Assuming they add Teixeira or Sabathia, in addition to the return of Wang and Posada, they could be an even better club next year.

Toronto's window in baseball's toughest division is very small. They're going to need more than a little luck to win; they need to maximize their resources to their fullest abilities. This team isn't going to be competing long term without a pretty substancial overhaul or improvement from Rios and Wells. If they are going to win, it is going to be soon, and the best way I can see is to move to a four man rotation. Other than Litsch, all of the Jays starters will be 26 or older next year. These aren't young arms. They need to be aired out a little bit.